Ionospheric weather at two Starlink launches during two-phase geomagnetic storms

The launch of a series of Starlink internet satellites on 3 February 2022 (S-36), and 7 July 2022 (S-49), coincided with the development of two-phase geomagnetic storms. The first launch S-36 took place in the middle of the moderate two-phase space weather storm, which induced significant technological consequences. After liftoff on 3 February at 18:13 UT, all Starlink satellites reached an initial altitude of 350 km in perigee and had to reach an altitude of ~550 km after the maneuver. However, 38 of 49 launched spacecrafts did not reach the planned altitude, left orbit due to increased drag and reentered the atmosphere on 8 February. A geomagnetic storm on 3–4 February 2022 has increased the density of the neutral atmosphere up to 50%, increasing drag of the satellites and dooming most of them. The second launch of S-49 at 13:11 UT on 7 July 2022 was successful at the peak of the two-phase geomagnetic storm. The global ionospheric maps of the total electron content (GIM-TEC) have been used to produce the ionospheric weather GIM-W index maps and Global Electron Content (GEC). We observed a GEC increment from 10 to 24% for the storm peak after the Starlink launch at both storms, accompanying the neutral density increase identified earlier. GIM-TEC maps are available with a lag (delay) of 1–2 days (real-time GIMs have a lag less than 15 min), so the GIMs forecast is required by the time of the launch. Comparisons of different GIMs forecast techniques are provided including the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), Beijing (BADG and CASG) and IZMIRAN (JPRG) 1- and 2-day forecasts, and the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC-ionSAT) forecast for 6, 12, 18, 24 and 48 h in advance. We present the results of the analysis of evolution of the ionospheric parameters during both events. The poor correspondence between observed and predicted GIM-TEC and GEC confirms an urgent need for the industry–science awareness of now-casting/forecasting/accessibility of GIM-TECs during the space weather events.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system

The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (-87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, -180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Investigation of the Topside Ionosphere over Cyprus and Russia Using Swarm Data

Using the topside electron density (Ne) measurements recorded over Cyprus and Russia, we investigate the latitudinal variation in the topside electron density during the interval 2014-2020, encompassing a period of high-to-low solar activity. The selected topside electron density dataset employed in this study is based on the in situ Langmuir probe data on board the European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm satellites, in the vicinity of the three Digisonde stations in Nicosia (35.14 degrees N, 33.2 degrees E), Moscow (55.5 degrees N, 37.3 degrees E) and Saint Petersburg (60.0 degrees N, 30.7 degrees E). Our investigation demonstrates that the ratio Ne_(Swarm)/NmF2 between the coincident Ne_(Swarm) and the Digisonde NmF2 observations is higher than one on various occasions over Nicosia during the nighttime, which is not the case over Moscow and Saint Petersburg, signifying a discrepancy feature of the electron density at Swarm altitudes which depends not only on the solar activity and time of day but also on the latitude

Generation of proxy GIM-TEC for extreme storms before the Era of GNSS observations

For the first time, we reconstructed global distribution of both the total electron content disturbance W index and TEC values for eight extreme storms (Dst < -250 nT) occurred before the epoch of GNSS observations in solar cycle 22. We created a model based on superposed epoch analysis of the training set of GIM-W maps of nine SC23 extreme storms. Global GIM-W index maps are calculated from 15-min UPC GIM-TEC (UQRG) as the logarithmic deviation of instantaneous TEC from the monthly median GIMMTEC empirical model. We introduced the storm phase metrics for main and recovery phases of the positive ionosphere disturbance (the WU-index), the negative disturbance (the WL-index) and the ring current (the Dst-index). The probabilistic forecasting model (Pmodel) for SC22 GIM-Wx maps is developed based on GIM-W maps of the SC23 training set. The storm phase distribution Fx for the eight SC22 extreme storms is calculated from the proxy time shift (lag) of peak WUmax and WLmin relative to Dstmin. Proxy GIM-TECx maps are calculated by adjusting the GIM-MTEC median to the GIM-Wx prediction. Validation of the technique based on data of UPC and JPL for four intense ionospheric storms showed a root-mean-square error less than 3 TECU. The proposed technique can be applied for both the past and future forecasting of GIM-W index and GIM-TEC maps.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296

This review paper presents the main achievements of the near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296 Action. The outputs of the COST 296 community making data, historical and real-time, standardized and available to the ionospheric community for their research, applications and modeling purposes are presented. The contribution of COST 296 with the added value of the validated data made possible a trusted ionospheric monitoring for research and modeling purposes, and it served for testing and improving the algorithms producing real-time data and providing data users measurement uncertainties. These value added data also served for calibration and validation of space-borne sensors. New techniques and parameters have been developed for monitoring the near Earth space plasma, as time dependent 2D maps of vertical total electron content (vTEC), other key ionospheric parameters and activity indices for distinguishing disturbed ionospheric conditions, as well as a technique for improving the discrepancies of different mapping services. The dissemination of the above products has been developed by COST 296 participants throughout the websites making them available on-line for real-time applications

Near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296

This review paper presents the main achievements of the near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296 Action. The outputs of the COST 296 community making data, historical and real-time, standardized and available to the ionospheric community for their research, applications and modeling purposes are presented. The contribution of COST 296 with the added value of the validated data made possible a trusted ionospheric monitoring for research and modeling purposes, and it served for testing and improving the algorithms producing real-time data and providing data users measurement uncertainties. These value added data also served for calibration and validation of space-borne sensors. New techniques and parameters have been developed for monitoring the near Earth space plasma, as time dependent 2D maps of vertical total electron content (vTEC), other key ionospheric parameters and activity indices for distinguishing disturbed ionospheric conditions, as well as a technique for improving the discrepancies of different mapping services. The dissemination of the above products has been developed by COST 296 participants throughout the websites making them available on-line for real-time applications

St. Patrick’s Day 2015 geomagnetic storm analysis based on Real Time Ionosphere Monitoring

A detailed analysis is presented for the days in March, 2015 surrounding St. Patrick’s Day 2015 geomagnetic storm, based on the existing real-time and near real-time ionospheric models (global or regional) within the group, which are mainly based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and ionosonde data. For this purpose, a variety of ionospheric parameters is considered, including Total Electron Content (TEC), F2 layer critical frequency (foF2), F2 layer peak (hmF2), bottomside halfthickness (B0) and ionospheric disturbance W-index. Also, ionospheric high-frequency perturbations such as Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs), scintillations and the impact of solar flares facing the Earth will be presented to derive a clear picture of the ionospheric dynamicsPostprint (published version

Online User-Friendly Slant Total Electron Content Computation From Iri-Plas: Iri-Plas-Stec

Slant total electron content (STEC), the total number of free electrons on a ray path, is an important space weather observable. STEC is the main input for computerized ionospheric tomography (CIT). STEC can be estimated using the dual-frequency GPS receivers. GPS-STEC contains the space weather variability, yet the estimates are prone to measurement and instrument errors that are not related to the physical structure of the ionosphere. International Reference Ionosphere Extended to Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas) is the international standard climatic model of ionosphere and plasmasphere, providing vertical electron density profiles for a desired date, time, and location. IRI-Plas is used as the background model in CIT. Computation of STEC from IRI-Plas is a tedious task for researchers due to extensive geodetic calculations and IRI-Plas runs. In this study, IONOLAB group introduces a new space weather service to facilitate the computation of STEC from IRI-Plas (IRI-Plas-STEC) at . The IRI-Plas-STEC can be computed online for a desired location, date, hour, elevation, and azimuth angle. The user-friendly interface also provides means for computation of IRI-STEC for a desired location and date to indicate the variability in hour of the day, elevation, or azimuth angles. The desired location can be chosen as a GPS receiver in International GNSS Service (IGS) or EUREF Permanent Network (EPN). Also instead of specifying elevation and azimuth angles, the user can directly choose from the GPS satellites and obtain IRI-Plas-STEC for a desired date and/or hour. The computed IRI-Plas-STEC values are presented directly on the screen or via e-mail as both text and plots.Wo

North-south components of the annual asymmetry in the ionosphere

A retrospective study of the asymmetry in the ionosphere during the solstices is made using the different geospace parameters in the North and South magnetic hemispheres. Data of total electron content (TEC) and global electron content (GEC) produced from global ionospheric maps, GIM-TEC for 1999-2013, the ionospheric electron content (IEC) measured by TOPEX-Jason 1 and 2 satellites for 2001-2012, the F-2 layer critical frequency and peak height measured on board ISIS 1, ISIS 2, and IK19 satellites during 1969-1982, and the earthquakes M5+ occurrences for 1999-2013 are analyzed. Annual asymmetry is observed with GEC and IEC for the years of observation with asymmetry index, AI, showing January > July excess from 0.02 to 0.25. The coincident pattern of January-to-July asymmetry ratio of TEC and IEC colocated along the magnetic longitude sector of 270 degrees +/- 5 degrees E in the Pacific Ocean is obtained varying with local time and magnetic latitude. The sea/land differences in the F-2 layer peak electron density, NmF2, and the peak height, h(m)F(2), gathered with topside sounding data exhibit tilted ionosphere along the seashores with denser electron population at greater peak heights over the sea. The topside peak electron density NmF2, TEC, IEC, and the hemisphere part of GEC are dominant in the South hemisphere which resembles the pattern for seismic activity with dominant earthquake occurrence in the South magnetic hemisphere. Though the study is made for the hemispheric and annual asymmetry during solstices in the ionosphere, the conclusions seem valid for other aspects of seismic-ionospheric associations with tectonic plate boundaries representing zones of enhanced risk for space weather.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft